The global softwood market — a key sector for construction, packaging and furniture — is experiencing one of the most contrasting periods in a decade in 2025. While Finland and other Scandinavian exporters are benefiting from explosive demand from the Middle East, the UK and parts of Asia, China, the world's largest consumer, is sharply reducing imports. The changes are "reshaping trade routes" and putting significant pressure on forest-dependent economies, from North American producers to European exporters.
Finland is showing an impressive recovery after stagnating in 2024. National production is estimated at 11.7 million m³ in 2025, more than 10% more than last year, while exports outside the EU grew by 13% to €6.5 billion in the first half of the year. This development comes despite record prices for spruce logs — the index reached 160 (base 2015=100), which is squeezing mill margins.
Egypt is becoming a key growth driver: softwood imports from Finland increased by 8% to €240 million in the first six months. The MENA region, which already accounted for 10% of global softwood trade in 2015, is becoming a real magnet for Scandinavian producers thanks to large-scale construction and renovation projects. Finland and Sweden account for over 70% of Egypt's imports.
The UK is also contributing to the positive momentum: its imports rose by 15% in the first two months of 2025 to 104,000 m3, after only +1% in 2023. Latvia — with exports to the UK up 22% — and Sweden remain the main suppliers, but Finland is actively expanding its presence in the plywood segment.
Even Asia is showing signs of recovery after years of slowdown: Japan recorded an 80% increase in imports in January-February, while China temporarily increased imports by 23% in the same period. Accelerated urbanization makes the Asia-Pacific region one of the most promising in 2025. Overall, Finland's exports exceeded 10.4 million m3 in 2023, and the forecast for 2025 predicts a further 5% increase.
Despite high log prices, emerging markets provide stability and resilience for the Finnish industry.
In contrast, China - which accounts for 18% of global wood consumption and 71% of Asia's - is experiencing its most severe import decline in a decade. In 2025, the decline is estimated at 14-20% compared to the previous year, especially in the second half of the year.
The main factor is the escalation of the trade conflict with the United States. In March 2025, Beijing completely suspended imports of US logs and rough lumber worth $850 million per year in response to US tariffs of 10% on softwood and 25% on furniture. As a result, imports of US logs fell by 90% in June. US tariffs since October, which increased to 20% on Chinese imports, have reduced Chinese furniture exports to the US market by 22%.
The crisis is being exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and domestic economic weakness. China’s declining real estate sector has reduced demand for softwood logs by 7% in 2025. Overall imports continue to fall: Russia remains the main supplier, but with an annual decline of 10%; EU shipments to China fell by 37% due to US tariffs, which also affect third countries (46% for Vietnam, 20% for the EU). Brazil reduced exports to China by 60%, while Vietnam became a transit hub for North American exports.
The IMF warns that trade tensions could affect 30% of global trade in forest products, raising global inflation and creating new supply disruptions.
As China retreats, Finland, Sweden and other Scandinavian players are expanding their presence in the MENA region, the UK and the Asia-Pacific region. However, global market volatility reveals serious vulnerabilities: dependence on volatile markets, inflationary risks and pressure on producers.
For Romania, which is developing its softwood exports, this situation creates both risks and new opportunities. Diversifying sales markets, investing in sustainable development and obtaining "green" certificates are becoming key to reducing dependence on volatile markets such as China. With EU imports estimated at 48.5 million m³ in 2025, Romania can fill the gaps created by global trade changes and strengthen its presence in the region.
As 2025 progresses, the wood market becomes a barometer of international geopolitical tensions. The expected talks between the US and China at the APEC summit could redefine trade flows for the years to come. Forestmania.ro will continue to monitor these changes, providing relevant analytical materials for the Romanian forest industry.
