yesterday at 10:58
,Ukraine
Wood stocks at forest owners have grown markedly in recent weeks – a sign that the dynamics on the roundwood market have changed noticeably. At the same time, increased transport and logistics costs are placing additional pressure on the wood industry’s purchasing prices and intensifying the strain on the entire value chain.
Another burdening factor is the stalled timber export resulting from the Iran war. Trade flows are shifting, and major exporters are purchasing less sawn timber. The consequence: volumes that cannot be sold on target markets in the Middle East are apparently being diverted to other markets, disrupting international timber trade – even though the concrete effects on export prices are still difficult to assess at present.
In view of high supply and well-stocked sawmills, demand for softwood sawlogs is currently very low. Forest owners report for May and June that the sawmill industry has significantly reduced prices for spruce sawlogs in the second quarter of 2026. In many places, the removal of the provided timber is proceeding noticeably more slowly than before, causing forest stock levels to continue rising in many regions.
Specifically, prices for spruce sawlogs in the second quarter mostly ranged between 123 and 125 euros per cubic metre – roughly seven to ten euros below the peak of over 130 euros still achieved in March 2026. Significant price reductions of up to ten euros or more are also being reported for pinewood in some cases, while sales are running considerably worse than in previous months.
The main reason for the declining prices is the markedly improved timber supply situation at sawmills. This is compounded by weakening demand, attributable both to the tense overall economic situation and to the price-driven high timber harvest for spruce and pine. The strong price increase until March 2026 was not based on booming demand but on structural supply shortages, empty stocks, and concerns over bottlenecks. Rising transport costs, a lack of freight capacity, and growing stock levels are now curbing demand and additionally increasing the risk of quality losses in stored timber. Forest owner associations and timber traders consider further price declines for spruce and pine likely.
The situation in the hardwood segment presents a different picture: lower available volumes have led to price increases for oak and beech through April.
The changed export situation is noticeably influencing the purchasing behaviour and price offers of exporters on the German and European timber market. Export-oriented sawmills could further reduce their purchasing, while high roundwood stocks at mills are already leading to allocations and reduced timber removals. This results in a clear recommendation for action for forest owners and forest managers: existing forest stocks should be removed as quickly as possible and ongoing timber production should be completed. Further timber harvesting, however, should be strategically postponed until market developments in the further course of 2026 become clearer.
In the medium term, however, a renewed rise in prices cannot be ruled out either. A new supply shortage could occur if larger volumes of damaged timber continue to be absent and the export market stabilises again.
“The market can turn around quickly if larger volumes of damaged timber continue to be absent – then a renewed supply shortage could already be possible in July.”
